Conflict between groups of players in coupled socio-economic and ecological dynamics

Conflict among multiple groups is a major source of difficulty in environmental conservation. People are often divided into various groups that have different social factors, sometimes leading to differences in the degree to which they cooperate in environmental conservation. This obstructs the social consensus needed to solve the environmental problems. Here we study the coupled dynamics of human socio-economic choice and lake water pollution, and examine the magnitude of the difference in cooperation levels between two groups. In the model, many players choose between a costly but cooperative option and a selfish option. The former results in a reduced phosphorus discharge into the lake. Each player's choice is affected by an economic cost and social pressure. Social pressure is a psychological factor that promotes cooperation: it becomes stronger when more players in the society are cooperative (conformist tendency) and when the problem at hand is a greater concern to society. In the model, two groups sometimes show large differences in their cooperation levels even when both have exactly the same social factors. However, cooperation levels are more likely to differ between groups that have different social factors. Enhancement of the cross-group conformist tendency is the most effective way to minimize differences in cooperation levels and to mitigate conflict between groups.     

国际大宗商品价格冲击、传递效应与中国的通货膨胀动态

本文在Philips曲线设定下,通过扩展该模型实证考察国际大宗商品价格冲击对中国通货膨胀动态的影响作用。本文在线性模型设定以及Markov机制转换设定下考察国际大宗商品价格冲击对中国国内通货膨胀的传递效应。本文实证研究结果表明,国际大宗商品价格动态变化不仅在统计意义上显著地影响着中国通货膨胀动态,而且个别类别的国际大宗商品价格变化对中国通货膨胀动态的传递效应相对明显。最后,结合经验研究结果,本文提供了相关政策建议和启示。     

Bounded rationality,adaptive behaviour,and asset prices

This paper develops a simple heterogeneous agent model (HAM) of asset prices with bounded rationality and adaptive behaviour. The model features feedback loop that amplifies shocks and leads to large price fluctuations. Our model not only retains the nonlinear interaction between prices and population in HAMs but also allows for a quantitative comparison with the data. Estimating the model to the data shows that the feedback loop helps explain the large variations in expected returns, such as return predictability and excess volatility.     

Yield curve and the macroeconomy: Evidence from a DSGE model with housing

The slope of the yield curve has long been found to be a useful predictor of future economic activities, but the relationship is unstable. One change we have identified in this paper is that, between the early 1990s and the collapse of the housing market in 2007, movements at the long end of the yield curve have an increase in predictive power. We use a medium-scale DSGE model with a housing sector and a yield curve as a guide to find out the sources of such change. The model implies that an increase in the short-term interest rate and a decrease in the long-term interest rate have different impacts on the economy, and to use the slope as a predictor one needs to distinguish movements at the two ends of the yield curve. Based on simulated data from the model, we find that nominal wage rigidities and the capital adjustment costs are closely related to the predictive power of the yield curve. This result is further confirmed with actual data.     

国际资本异常流动对经济增长具有非线性效应吗?--基于汇率制度和金融市场发展视角

本文基于64个经济体1999-2017年的季度面板数据,采用工具变量广义矩估计(IV-GMM)方法,从汇率制度和金融市场发展视角研究国际资本异常流动对经济增长的非线性效应。研究表明,资本流动激增显著促进了经济增长,资本流动中断、外逃和撤回对经济增长具有负向影响。有弹性的汇率制度显著减弱了四种资本异常流动情形对经济增长的冲击效应;金融市场发展显著降低了激增、中断和撤回对经济增长的冲击影响,强化了外逃对经济增长的冲击效应。随着汇率制度弹性和金融发展程度变化,新兴经济体与发达经济体资本外逃对经济增长的影响呈现明显的异质性。本文结论对于各国防范国际资本异常流动风险、维护国内经济金融稳定,以及稳步有序推进汇率市场化改革和金融市场建设具有重要的参考价值。     

The macroeconomic impact of economic uncertainty and financial shocks under low and high financial stress

External financial frictions might increase the severity of economic uncertainty shocks. We analyze the impact of aggregate uncertainty and financial condition shocks using a threshold vector autoregressive (TVAR) model with stochastic volatility during distinct US financial stress regimes. We further examine the international spillover of the US financial shock. Our results show that the peak contraction in euro area industrial production due to uncertainty shocks during a financial crisis is nearly-four times larger than the peak contraction during normal times. The US financial shocks have an influential asymmetric spillover effect on the euro area. Furthermore, the estimates reveal that the European Central Bank (ECB) is more cautious in implementing a monetary policy against uncertainty shocks while adopting hawkish monetary policies against financial shocks. In contrast, the Fed adopts a more hawkish monetary policy during heightened uncertainty, whereas it acts more steadily when financial stress rises in the economy.     

Analytically pricing variance and volatility swaps under a Markov-modulated model with liquidity risks

This paper determines strike prices of discretely sampled variance/volatility swaps taking into account stochastic liquidity risks and the switching of economic conditions. We adopt nonlinear regime switching volatility to reflect how asset prices are affected by economic cycles, and market prices of assets are discounted according to the level of market liquidity. We then establish a risk-neutral measure under regime switching Esscher transform, so that analytical valuation of variance/volatility swaps can be completed based on the closed-form forward characteristic function. The limiting behavior of discretely sampled variance/volatility swaps is also considered through the investigation of pricing continuously sampled variance/volatility swaps. Finally, based on the results from numerical implementation, we confirm that the new model is very flexible in reflecting different influence associated with common real market observations.     

Regime complexity and state competition over Global Internet Governance

This study focuses on regime complexity and state competition over global Internet governance (GIG). By conceptualizing and mapping international regime complexity, the actors in international issues concerning GIG are identified and studied and the dynamic interactions between states related to GIG are explored. In particular, the 2012 amendments to the International Telecommunication Regulations are used in our analysis of the factors that have contributed to the creation of disputes and cooperation among states in the GIG regime. The empirical study shows that the influence of powerful states, such as the US and China, can affect other states’ decisions on GIG. Furthermore, the findings reveal that democratic states with fewer regulations on business are more likely to support the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers over the International Telecommunication Union.     

Press freedom,market information,and international trade

We consider a framework in which freedom of the media can alleviate barriers to trade, while in the absence of trustworthy market information, firms optimally withhold part of their export activity and opt for testing-the-waters strategies. We employ data on export flows among a large group of Western and Latin American countries combined with the Freedom House measure of press freedom to examine the main theoretical implication. In a standard set-up of gravity equations, we find evidence that the effects are partially conditional on the political institutions of the importing country: press freedom is strongly associated with trade with autocracies.     

Regime change and critical junctures

In this paper we study how a society can transition between different economic and political regimes. When the current regime is elitism, the society is modeled as a collection of units of land where at each of these units there is a member of the elite and a peasant. Under the democratic regime, at each of the units of land there is a citizen whose role is to work the land and enjoy the full output he produces. At every period with some small probability a critical juncture arrives, giving a chance for a regime change. Among others, we find that a wider output gap can increase the number of different institutions that are possible after a critical juncture and that lower land profitability makes equilibria where an extractive regime continues less likely.